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Economics

National security and economic stability in Nigeria

Moore Ogumka Raymond

Vol. 1, Issue 22026pp. 68–81

Widespread insecurity has consistently threatened Nigeria's economic stability, with gains in macroeconomic reform undermined over the past decade by the intersection of violent conflict and precarious fiscal conditions. Nigeria currently ranks as the fifth most conflict-affected country globally, confronting simultaneous insurgency in the Northeast, banditry in the Northwest, farmer-herder conflicts in the Middle Belt, separatist militancy in the Southeast, and oil theft in the Niger Delta. This paper examines how insecurity affects Nigeria's economic stability through fiscal performance, agricultural productivity, investment climate, and macro-financial stability, while proposing evidence-based policy options for integrating security sector effectiveness with economic policy. Drawing on a systematic review of secondary data from government budgets, and international database, the paper synthesizes quantitative evidence on the fiscal, sectoral, and macroeconomic costs of insecurity, anchored in established theoretical frameworks. Consolidated security spending reached N17.36 trillion between 2021 and 2025, yet fatalities rose from approximately 10,000 in 2020 to 11,968 in 2025. Oil theft and vandalism cost the government $3.3 billion between 2023 and 2024, reducing production by 27.4% over a decade. Agricultural productivity in conflict areas declined by 20-30%, while over 33 million Nigerians were projected to face crisis-level food insecurity by mid-2025. Insecurity was identified as a key downside risk to growth in the country. Nigeria cannot consolidate macroeconomic reform gains without a reliable security dividend rooted in robust institutions. Medium-term priorities must integrate outcome-based security budgeting, sector-specific security architectures, and conflict-sensitive macroeconomic programming to ensure sustainable growth and national resilience.

Finance

Portfolio Optimization and Financial Risk Analysis using Quantitative and Computational Methods: Evidence from selected S&P 500 Firms

Oyebamiji Sodiq Akorede, Adeyemi Paul Oluwatimilehin, Adedeji Teslim Olaide, Akinyemi Akeem Alabi, Ruth Sinmilejesu Alesinloye

Vol. 1, Issue 22026pp. 10–25

This study examines portfolio optimization and financial risk analysis for ten large-cap U.S. equities drawn from seven GICS sectors of the S&P 500, covering the period January 2021 to December 2025. Motivated by the well-documented limitations of classical mean-variance (MV) optimization (including sensitivity to return estimation error and the systematic underestimation of tail risk in non-normal return environments), the study adopts an integrated quantitative and computational framework comprising LASSO regression-based return prediction, Markowitz MV optimization, historical Value-at-Risk (VaR), Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), and Monte Carlo simulation. Three portfolio strategies are constructed and evaluated which included a Classical MVO portfolio using historical mean returns, a Machine Learning-Enhanced portfolio substituting LASSO-predicted returns as expected return inputs, and an Equal-Weight benchmark. Results indicate that both optimized portfolios substantially outperform the Equal-Weight benchmark on a risk-adjusted basis, achieving Sharpe ratios of 1.374 and 1.317 respectively against the benchmark's 0.826. The ML-Enhanced portfolio generates the highest mean simulated five-year terminal wealth of 4.037 times the initial investment, with a near-zero probability of capital loss (0.05%) compared to 0.75% for the Equal-Weight strategy. Individual firm risk analysis reveals pronounced tail-risk heterogeneity, with Amazon recording the most extreme 99% CVaR of −25.210% and Coca-Cola the most resilient at −5.964%. The systematic divergence between VaR and CVaR estimates across all entities provides direct empirical support for CVaR's theoretical superiority as a risk measure in leptokurtic return environments which affirm the value of integrating machine learning with classical optimization theory and tail-sensitive risk measurement for evidence-based portfolio construction.

Education Policy and Management

Perceived barriers to participation in physical activity among children in primary schools in Owerri North Local Government Area, Imo State, Nigeria

Nonye Peculiar Okafor, Melitus A. Oyigbo, Jude C. Nwakamma, and Magaret Ada Maduka

Vol. 1, Issue 22026pp. 1–9

Physical activity is essential for children’s physical, psychological, social, and overall development, yet participation among primary school children may be constrained by institutional, teacher-related, and pupil-related factors. This study investigated the perceived barriers affecting children’s participation in physical activities in primary schools in Owerri North Local Government Area (LGA) of Imo State, Nigeria. The study adopted a descriptive survey research design. The population comprised 410 primary school teachers, from which a sample of 202 teachers was determined using the Taro Yamane formula at a 0.05 level of precision and selected through a multistage sampling procedure. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire titled Barriers to Physical Activity Questionnaire (BPAQ). The instrument was subjected to face and content validation by experts in Physical and Health Education and Measurement and Evaluation, while its reliability was established using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, yielding a coefficient of 0.83. Data were analysed using frequency counts, percentages, mean, and standard deviation. The findings revealed that inadequate funding, inadequate support from school management, inadequate access to sports facilities and equipment, poor allocation of instructional time, and inadequate teaching spaces were major institutional barriers. The study concluded that participation in physical activities, among children in primary schools in Owerri North LGA, is constrained by interconnected institutional, teacher-related, and pupil-related factors. It recommends improved funding and provision of facilities and equipment, stronger administrative support, adequate instructional time, continuous teacher professional development, and the adoption of engaging and inclusive strategies to motivate pupils’ participation in physical activities.

Search Articles

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National security and economic stability in Nigeria

Technical skills of diagnostic monitors for optimising petrol engine maintenance instruction in technical colleges in Southeastern Nigeria

Government Expenditure on Education and Health in Nigeria: Implications for Economic Growth using Evidence from ARDL Analysis

Armed Conflict, Institutional Quality, and School Enrollment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from an Entropy Balanced Panel

Portfolio Optimization and Financial Risk Analysis using Quantitative and Computational Methods: Evidence from selected S&P 500 Firms

Perceived barriers to participation in physical activity among children in primary schools in Owerri North Local Government Area, Imo State, Nigeria

Subsidy removal and Nigeria's real estate industry: a micro-economic assessment of multiplier effects through mathematical modelling and poverty alleviation dynamics

Financial inclusion and agricultural production among smallholder farmers in rural communities in Ebonyi state, Nigeria

Gendered barriers and women electoral participation in Nigeria: implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 5

Oil price shocks in Nigeria: implications on economic growth

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