Armed Conflict, Institutional Quality, and School Enrollment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from an Entropy Balanced Panel
Edokat Edward Tafah and Ngwenyi Meungwe Chefor
Abstract
This study evaluates the impact of armed conflict on school enrollment across 37 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2023. Using entropy balancing and fixed effects panel regression, the study finds that conflict reduces gross primary enrollment by 0.9 to 1.1 percentage points. Girls experience greater enrollment losses than boys and remain depressed three years after conflict ends, whereas boys recover within that window. Central Africa suffers a 3.0 percentage point penalty, while West Africa shows statistically insignificant effects. Control of corruption fully neutralizes the conflict penalty at a threshold corresponding to the governance levels of Ghana and Senegal. Policy should prioritize legally ring fenced education budgets and anti-corruption measures during and after conflict.