This study investigates the influence of fuel subsidy removal and food inflation on household welfare in Nigeria from June 2023 to December 2025, covering the post-subsidy removal era, which began on May 29, 2023. Monthly secondary data on household consumption expenditure (HCE), fuel pump price (FPP), consumer price index (CPI), and exchange rate (EXR) were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), and the Central Bank of Nigeria. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and KPSS unit root tests demonstrate that all variables are integrated to order one [I(1)]. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach validates cointegration, while an Error Correction Model (ECM) was calculated to separate short-run dynamics from long-run equilibrium effects. Results show that fuel pump prices, food inflation, and currency rate depreciation all have a negative long-run impact on real household consumption expenditure, with elasticities of -0.483, -0.325, and -0.219, respectively. The ECM value of -0.412 indicates a reasonably rapid correction of around 41% of any disequilibrium every month. Diagnostic tests confirm model stability, the absence of serial correlation, and parameter consistency across the estimation horizon. The findings emphasize the importance of targeted social protection systems, transparent downstream petroleum pricing regulation, and currency rate stabilization in Nigeria's subsidy reform.
Onyekachi Sunday Ajah, Geraldine Nzeribe, and Uju Ezenekwe
This study examines the relationship between energy consumption and under-five mortality in Nigeria from 1990 to 2024. Annual time-series data were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach and an error correction model. The bounds test confirmed a long-run relationship among the variables. Long-run results indicate that renewable energy consumption, female education, and urbanization have positive and significant relationships with under-five mortality, while electricity access, GDP per capita, and government health expenditure have negative and significant relationships. Non-renewable energy consumption and governance are statistically insignificant. In the short run, electricity access, government health expenditure, female education, and urbanization are negatively associated with under-five mortality. The error correction term of -0.4628 indicates that approximately 46.28% of disequilibrium was corrected each period. The study recommends expanding reliable electricity access, improving healthcare financing, and integrating energy policies with maternal and child healthcare interventions.
Capital markets in many African economies remain relatively underdeveloped despite their growing importance in financial intermediation and economic transformation. This study examines the relationship between capital market development and economic growth in a panel of emerging African economies, namely Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt, over the period 1986–2024. Economic growth is proxied by GDP growth rate, while capital market development is measured using market capitalization, value of shares traded, all share index, and number of listed securities. The study adopts a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) model estimated using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) technique to capture both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships across countries. The findings reveal that market capitalization, value of shares traded, and all share index exert positive and statistically significant (p < 0.05) effects on economic growth in the long run. However, the number of listed securities shows a negative long-run effect, indicating that expansion in listings without corresponding improvements in quality may hinder growth. The error correction term confirms convergence to the long-run equilibrium after short-run shocks. The study recommends reinforcement of market liquidity, institutional quality, and investor protection designs in emerging African economies.
This study examines the effect of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise (MSME) development on inclusive growth using quarterly time-series data from 2010 to 2024, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the World Bank Global Findex. Inclusive growth is proxied by financial inclusion, operationalized as a composite index constructed from five indicators: account ownership, deposit money bank (DMB) branches, automated teller machines (ATMs), point-of-sale (POS) terminals, and mobile/digital registered accounts. The composite index was derived through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensionality and address inter-indicator multicollinearity. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework was employed to estimate long-run and short-run dynamics among financial inclusion, MSME credit, private sector credit, interest rate, and inflation. Empirical findings show that MSME credit significantly (p < 0.05) promotes inclusive growth, while private sector credit and inflation exhibit statistically weak effects. These results underscore that expanding targeted MSME financing and improving access to affordable financial services are essential to advancing equitable economic participation in Nigeria.